Respectfully disagreeing with Seth Godin on equity

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Seth Godin just gave some really out of the box advice on how to structure equity in a new company.

It's actually great advice, but I disagree with his claim that his method offers a better way to value the company.

Here's why: just as Seth points out that we don't know what the company's going to be worth in 18 months, we probably don't know what it's going to do, how it's going to make money, what market forces we're going to have to address, nor how we'll address them during the next 18 months.

We have a plan. If we're really smart and sophisticated, we have a Plan B and a Plan C and so on.

But it's even harder to say "here's what this task list will be worth in 18 months" than it is to say "here's what this company is going to be worth in 18 months." Both are equally dependent on the same unknown variables in an uncertain future.

What's really valuable about Seth's advice is the brass-tacks conversations you have to have about expectations and the implementation roadmap if you take his advice. It's a lot easier to dream together than to figure out how to work together. Better to figure that out now, not months from now.

Spending lots of upfront time hashing out the roadmap should make the equity conversation a lot simpler. We should come away from that conversation with a clearer sense of shared vision, what everyone's got to do toward it, and to what extent we trust each other to do what we say.

But I don't think that actually structuring the equity in the manner Seth suggests has any more value than 50/50, 49/51, the % of startup capital each put in, the % of decision responsibility you expect to share, whatever motivates and satisfies your partners and stakeholders.